Many column inches have been dedicated to the prolific success of ExxonMobil and partners in Guyana. Following 14 successful discoveries in the Stabroek block and estimated gross recoverable resource of over 6 billion barrels of oil equivalent, the Liza field achieved first oil on the 20th December 2019. This is a huge milestone for the country where oil revenues can, and likely will, make a massive difference to the prosperity of the nation where average GDP per capita is currently $6,900. If you value each gross recoverable barrel in the Stabroek block at $60, that’s half a million dollars worth of oil in place for each of the 750,000 inhabitants.
But what does this mean for the local crew transfer business? Has the helicopter market lifted off in parallel with Exxon’s fortunes? Who is flying there? Which aircraft are preferred? Air and Sea Analytics takes a closer look at the Guyana crew transfer market…
Up until 2012, it would not be wrong to say that Guyana had been something of a disappointing offshore play. Some 40 wells had been drilled up to this point, all of them dry. ExxonMobil and partners were meanwhile well-progressed with a programme of seismic survey & analysis and would follow up with a well to test their reservoir model in 2015 which yielded the successful Liza-1 discovery in the Stabroek block. In just under five years since, they have incredibly managed a further 13 successful wells on the same block and moved from discovery to first oil on Liza ahead of schedule.
Other operators have also been exploring. Tullow have made two discoveries (Jethro-1 and Joe-1) and are evaluating commerciality (the oil discovered is heavier than expected) whilst also planning further exploration wells in the Orinduik block. Repsol are currently drilling on the Kanuku block and results are expected imminently.
Activity is accelerating rapidly. Liza is now onstream, will soon export its first cargo, and Exxon have four drillships working in-country and have stated that they have a further 30 additional exploration drilling prospects including those in the Canje and Kaiteur blocks. The Liza Destiny FPSO has been on-site since the summer and since then the Rowan EXL II jackup has also mobilised in Guyana for Repsol. Tullow have lent the Stena Forth Drillship to Karoon in nearby Peru for a one-well slot, the Marina-1 prospect, but then it is expected back in Guyana. As can be seen below in a summary view of 2018 and 2019 helicopter and offshore activity, the additional volume of rigs and platforms working is correlated to more flights and more aircraft working as we would expect.
What of the aircraft working? Until recently it was exclusively Bristow AW139s. From one AW139 working at the start of 2018 Bristow have subsequently brought additional units from the USA to their Guyana base in the capital Georgetown, with as many as five AW139s working in late summer as the hook up of the Liza Destiny FPSO began. The Liza field is circa 190km from shore and the AW139 with a 7,000kg MTOW in its latest version is very much a capable ‘Super-Medium’ for the job. Heavier aircraft such as the well-proven Sikorsky S-92 have also been used by Bristow in recent months and Medium rotorcraft such as the S76C. Sikorsky have also reported that Trinidad & Tobago operator National Helicopter Services Ltd. will soon be operating two S-76D in Guyana.
By 2025, five FPSOs are expected to be working in Guyana producing some 750,000 bpd. This will continue to drive further growth in helicopter usage and depending on the success or otherwise of future exploration programmes this could be a growth story that is measured in decades.
Look out for Air and Sea Analytics’ in-depth country by country review and market forecast to be published in the new year. In the meantime, Merry Christmas to you all and best wishes for 2020!
Steve Robertson, Director
Air & Sea Analytics